Electricity demand is skyrocketing across the Middle East and North Africa, and it’s being driven by two big factors: cooling homes and businesses in extreme heat, and making seawater drinkable through desalination. A new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows just how dramatic the surge is. Electricity use in the region has tripled since 2000, and it’s expected to jump another 50% by 2035. That’s like adding the current combined electricity demand of Germany and Spain.
Cooling and desalination alone are expected to account for about 40% of that growth over the next decade. Urbanization, industrialization, the electrification of transport, and the boom in data centers are also adding to the load, according to the IEA’s report, “The Future of Electricity in the Middle East and North Africa.”
Right now, natural gas and oil overwhelmingly dominate power generation in the region, making up more than 90% of electricity supply. But that mix is changing. Many countries, including Saudi Arabia and Iraq, are trying to reduce oil-fired power to free it up for export. The IEA says natural gas will likely cover half the demand growth through 2035, with oil’s share falling from 20% today to just 5%.
Renewables are on the rise, too. Solar capacity is set to increase tenfold by 2035, growing by 200 gigawatts (GW), which would boost renewables’ share of the electricity mix to around 25%, up from 6% in 2024. Nuclear power is also expected to triple over the same period.
“Demand for electricity is surging across the Middle East and North Africa, driven by the rapidly rising need for air conditioning and water desalination in a heat- and water-stressed region with growing populations and economies,” said IEA executive director Fatih Birol. “To meet this demand, power capacity over the next 10 years is set to expand by over 300 GW, the equivalent of three times Saudi Arabia’s current total generation capacity.”
Meeting that demand won’t come cheap. Investment in the power sector hit $44 billion in 2024, and it’s projected to grow another 50% by 2035. Nearly 40% of that spending is expected to go toward upgrading grids, which currently suffer losses that are double the global average.
The IEA says grid upgrades and stronger regional interconnections will be critical for electricity security. Balancing renewables will also require more energy storage, demand-side flexibility, and enough gas-fired plants to cover when solar and wind aren’t available.
Energy efficiency improvements could ease some of the strain. For example, air conditioners in the region are less than half as efficient as those in Japan. Upgrading the ACs alone could cut peak demand growth by an amount equal to Iraq’s entire current power capacity.
If countries move more slowly on diversifying their power mix, according to the report, the stakes are high. Carbon dioxide emissions would continue to rise, and oil and gas demand for electricity could increase by more than a quarter by 2035, cutting export revenues by $80 billion and raising import bills by $20 billion.
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