The latest assessment by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) comes at a critical time. On the one hand, the organisation itself played a decisive role in exposing the Dieselgate scandal at Volkswagen exactly ten years ago. Other manufacturers were later also found guilty of manipulating emissions values on test benches. This triggered a radical change in the entire automotive industry and accelerated the development of new electric models.
On the other hand, the study is also perfectly timed for 2025: on 12 September, politicians and industry representatives will meet for the next EU strategy dialogue on the future of the automotive industry. Parts of the industry and politicians will campaign for the suspension or amendment of the agreed regulation that, from 2035 onwards, only new cars with CO2 emissions of zero grams per kilometre will be allowed to be registered in the EU.
It is nothing new that politicians, lobbyists and managers like to present facts in a way that serves their own goals. However, some statements made in recent months could give the impression that the European automotive industry is under serious threat from the strict CO2 targets. The ICCT has now provided a data-based market analysis that confirms the automotive industry’s significant successes on the road to electromobility.
ICCT sees automotive industry on track
“Our analysis shows that electrification in the EU is not only on track, it is actually gaining momentum,” says Peter Mock, Managing Director of ICCT Berlin. Car manufacturers are “only 9 grams away from their next CO₂ target for 2027.” The preferred instrument for achieving the CO₂ targets on time and on target is the sale of electric cars – manufacturers do not want to exceed the targets. “Among the major markets, EV uptake has been strong in Germany and France and has recently increased in Italy and Spain. Several smaller markets show particularly high EV market shares,” the study says.
As is well known, one of the first measures taken by the EU Strategy Dialogue was to make the CO2 targets, which were actually fixed, more flexible; instead of having to achieve the targets precisely every year, only the average value will be considered for the period from 2025 to 2027. This means that any exceedances in 2025 can be offset by lower CO2 fleet values in subsequent years without incurring penalties. The fact that manufacturers are now only nine grams above the targets on average is mainly due to rising sales of electric cars. And it is precisely these EU standards that contribute to reducing CO2 emissions and promoting technological innovation.
The ICCT’s latest figures come as no surprise, with the publication primarily aimed at the EU strategy dialogue. The half-yearly review already showed that no manufacturer needs to fear CO2 penalties. Christoph M. Schwarzer explained in detail back in July exactly how the calculation works and how German manufacturers performed at the half-year mark.
“The acceptance of electric vehicles is growing rapidly. From 80,000 electric cars produced in 2015, production in the EU rose to 2.35 million by 2024,” according to the ICCT. “Battery electric cars will have a 17 per cent market share of new registrations in Europe in the first half of 2025.”
And the conditions for further growth are favourable. Not only were technically very attractive electric cars and new platforms presented at the IAA this week (such as the iX3 from BMW and the electric GLC from Mercedes), but numerous more affordable electric cars are also on the horizon, such as the VW Group’s small car family, the Leapmotor B05 from China, and BYD has confirmed that the Dolphin Surf small car will be built in Hungary this year, which means that the EU special tariffs on imports from China will no longer apply. The ICCT survey shows that even without the new models unveiled at the IAA, most of which will not go on sale until 2026, the selection of electric cars under £30,000 has recently increased significantly.
At the same time, the public charging infrastructure is being rapidly expanded. The ICCT estimates that there will be one million charging points across the EU by July 2025, “representing an average annual growth rate of more than 45 per cent since 2020.” In addition, electric cars are also becoming increasingly attractive to customers from a financial perspective: “At €7.43 per 100 km, battery electric cars are already the cheapest vehicles to run, compared to €8.60 for diesel and €11.02 for petrol,” according to the ICCT. If purchase prices fall further, there will be no financial reason not to buy an electric car. By 2035, the situation will be different again.
What’s more, “battery-powered electric cars are becoming more environmentally friendly faster than expected,” said Peter Mock. At the beginning of July, the ICCT had already shown in another study that the climate benefits of electric cars are growing faster than previously assumed. Electric cars sold in Europe today produce 73 per cent less greenhouse gas over their lifetime than petrol cars. Electric cars make up for their CO2 footprint (mainly from battery production) with their significantly cleaner (not CO2-free) operation after just 17,000 kilometres, so in the first or second year, depending on mileage. From then on, electric cars are cleaner than petrol cars in terms of their carbon footprint, regardless of production. And that’s for an average of 18 years. The management consultancy P3 has explained in more detail in a white paper exactly how CO2 emissions from battery production are composed, what potential still exists and how customers can also influence the CO2 footprint of the battery when choosing their electric car.
The continued success of electric mobility is not yet a sure thing, as the ICCT also points out. It says that establishing battery production and supply chains in Europe requires “concerted efforts by governments and industry, as well as market confidence.” This is precisely why the path to electric mobility must be accelerated, not slowed down: “Further delays in the transition to electric vehicles carry the risk of losing market share in battery and vehicle production to global competitors.”
theicct.org, spiegel.de (in German)
This article was first published by Sebastian Schaal for Ev Authority’s German edition.
